Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 13.293236 15.188824 17.226228 19.574970 22.203857 25.051485 28.365310
2025-07-27 10.386041 12.939324 15.893376 19.547779 23.929972 28.997903 35.283360
2025-08-03 8.761333 11.547314 14.927438 19.300832 24.776769 31.371081 39.873813
2025-08-10 7.619289 10.563739 14.291068 19.308885 25.833755 33.971488 44.820404
2025-08-17 6.814551 9.873775 13.891304 19.486931 27.000602 36.652278 49.883520
2025-08-24 6.078704 9.178509 13.390934 19.445185 27.817297 38.864101 54.394174
2025-08-31 5.426748 8.518894 12.857798 19.278720 28.402313 40.740553 58.489089
2025-09-07 4.956546 8.065933 12.559834 19.390315 29.338338 43.093747 63.293190
2025-09-14 4.669526 7.852212 12.576968 19.933474 30.887067 46.335622 69.439900
2025-09-21 4.227220 7.353133 12.123129 19.735073 31.326166 48.003738 73.408541
2025-09-28 3.683336 6.638117 11.278183 18.873838 30.710291 48.092757 75.071553
2025-10-05 3.504441 6.502227 11.321587 19.375876 32.163574 51.254562 81.332789
2025-10-12 3.298366 6.307795 11.264809 19.727737 33.423685 54.216606 87.479142
2025-10-19 3.030481 5.981322 10.966057 19.665971 34.025021 56.202214 92.234410
2025-10-26 2.760736 5.623671 10.582999 19.429582 34.316292 57.698873 96.270200
2025-11-02 2.558423 5.369471 10.355537 19.433524 34.987883 59.803817 101.317615
2025-11-09 2.402812 5.187672 10.238949 19.614056 35.951004 62.397563 107.218816
2025-11-16 2.228158 4.951943 10.006265 19.571556 36.526381 64.377644 112.199240
2025-11-23 2.052325 4.696468 9.716659 19.404309 36.869868 65.979403 116.610097
2025-11-30 1.928470 4.534429 9.587994 19.516486 37.696657 68.401116 122.436016
2025-12-07 1.867079 4.496832 9.692690 20.062800 39.311641 72.198524 130.667507
2025-12-14 1.723375 4.269478 9.411196 19.863248 39.572706 73.699093 135.089480
2025-12-21 1.520745 3.892167 8.802908 18.997038 38.568444 72.972570 135.690615